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TL;DR
Outcome-First Decisions is a framework that guides organizations to evaluate ongoing initiatives based on current outcomes, recommending whether to keep, change, or kill them. It aims to improve portfolio health by promoting disciplined pruning.
A new decision framework called Outcome-First Decisions has been released, designed to help organizations evaluate ongoing initiatives by their current outcomes and make clear decisions to keep, change, or kill them. This approach aims to address the common problem of portfolio bloat caused by projects that continue without meaningful results.
Outcome-First Decisions is an open-source framework built around a simple yet powerful question: given where an initiative stands now, is its outcome worth its ongoing cost? It introduces the Worth Filter, which forces decision-makers to focus on forward-looking results rather than past investments or emotional attachments.
The framework produces three verdicts: keep, change, or kill. The emphasis is on making the ‘kill’ decision easier, helping organizations avoid the trap of continuing projects that no longer provide sufficient value. This approach is discussed in detail in Outcome-First Decisions: Keep, Change, or Kill.
Designed as the final decision node in a portfolio management cycle, Outcome-First Decisions complements earlier stages of idea evaluation and planning, providing a disciplined way to prune projects that are no longer justified by their outcomes. For more on decision strategies, see Outcome-First Decisions: Keep, Change, or Kill.
Outcome-First Decisions — keep, change, or kill
The hardest decision isn’t what to start — it’s what to stop. Judge every initiative by the outcome it produces now, not the effort already spent.
Independent commentary, produced with AI assistance under human editorial oversight. The views are the author’s own and may change. Outcome-First Decisions is open source under AGPL-3.0, provided “as is” without warranty; see the repository LICENSE. The framework’s verdicts are reasoning aids based on the inputs given and may be wrong — decision support, not decisions; verify independently before acting. Product and company names are trademarks of their respective owners; mention does not imply endorsement.
Why Outcome-First Decisions Reshape Portfolio Management
This framework addresses a key challenge in organizational management: avoiding portfolio clutter caused by ongoing but unproductive projects. By focusing solely on current outcomes, it helps organizations free up capacity, reduce wasted effort, and improve overall efficiency. Its emphasis on making kill decisions straightforward encourages disciplined pruning, which can lead to better resource allocation and strategic agility.
Adopting Outcome-First Decisions could lead to cultural shifts in how organizations handle project evaluation, emphasizing results over sunk costs and emotional attachments. This can ultimately improve decision-making quality and organizational health, especially in environments with numerous competing initiatives.
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The Origin and Rationale Behind Outcome-First Decisions
The concept stems from the recognition that many portfolios are burdened with long tail of ongoing projects that neither succeed nor get terminated. Traditional evaluation methods often rely on backward-looking metrics like invested effort, which tend to justify continued existence despite poor outcomes.
Developed by Thorsten Meyer, Outcome-First Decisions introduces a forward-looking approach that reframes the decision question, making it easier to eliminate projects that no longer produce value. The framework is part of a broader movement towards disciplined portfolio pruning and is available as open source, encouraging adoption and adaptation.
“The hardest decision in any portfolio isn’t what to start. It’s what to stop.”
— Thorsten Meyer
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Uncertainties About Implementation and Effectiveness
It is not yet clear how organizations will adopt Outcome-First Decisions at scale or how accurately the framework’s outcome measurements reflect true value. The risk exists that outcomes could be mismeasured or gamed, leading to premature or delayed kill decisions. Additionally, the framework cannot replace the emotional and cultural factors influencing decision-making, which may hinder its practical application.
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Next Steps for Adoption and Validation
Organizations interested in Outcome-First Decisions are likely to pilot the framework within select portfolios to assess its impact on decision quality and portfolio health. Further development may include refining outcome metrics and integrating the framework into existing portfolio management tools. Broader adoption will depend on demonstrated effectiveness and cultural acceptance.
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Key Questions
How does Outcome-First Decisions differ from traditional project evaluation?
It shifts the focus from past effort and sunk costs to current outcomes, making it easier to justify stopping projects that no longer produce value.
Can Outcome-First Decisions be applied to all types of initiatives?
While designed as a general framework, its effectiveness depends on the ability to measure relevant outcomes accurately. It is best suited for initiatives where outcomes can be clearly defined and tracked.
Is the framework available for use by any organization?
Yes, it is open source under the AGPL-3.0 license and can be implemented by organizations willing to adapt it to their specific needs.
What are the main risks of using Outcome-First Decisions?
The primary risks include mismeasurement of outcomes, premature killing of slow-start projects, and cultural resistance to stopping initiatives despite data suggesting they should be ended.
Source: ThorstenMeyerAI.com
